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Consultar: Programa de Ps-Graduao em Bioestatstica

Incio > Dissertaes e Teses > Multidisciplinar > Interdisciplinar (rea bsica: Sade e Biolgicas) > Programa de Ps-Graduao em Bioestatstica

Ttulo [PT]: Modelando precipitao extrema no Brasil pela teoria dos valores extremos
Ttulo [EN]: Modeling daily rainfall in Brazil with extreme value theory
Autor(es): Paulo Vitor da Costa Pereira
Palavras-chave [PT]:

Teoria estatstica bayesiana. Decises estatsticas. Modelo hierrquico bayesiana. Precipitao pluviomtrica. Anlise. Anlise estatstica. Brasil.
Palavras-chave [EN]:
Bayesian hierarchical model. Penultimate bias. Precipitation field. Return level map. Small sample bias. Brazil.
rea de concentrao: Estatstica Aplicada
Titulao: Mestre em Bioestatstica
Banca:
Isolde Terezinha Santos Previdelli [Orientador] - UEM
Silvia Lopes de Paula Ferrari - USP
Eniuce Menezes de Souza - UEM
Resumo:
Abstract: The accurate modeling of extreme events is growing in relevance, particularly in the environmental sciences in which such events can be seen as a result of climate change. In particular, measuring rainfall risk is also important for the design of hydraulic structures (dams, levees, drainage systems, bridges, etc.) and for flood mapping and zoning. The Brazilian regulatory agency, Agncia Nacional de guas (ANA), makes available rainfall series for 11,368 rain stations throughout Brazil, some of them dating from the 19th century. One of our goals was to produce, using the framework of extreme value theory, maps with reliable estimates of the 25-year return level of a extreme rainfall for each locality covered by ANA. Such dataset present many complex challenges: first, evaluating its quality; then, modeling spatial extremes over large random fields; modeling temporal nonstationarity of the extreme rainfall process due to natural climate seasonality and due to a possible trend owing to climate change; correcting biases resulting from misspecification of the model or from a small sample. In this study, we tackle all these issues. We perform a detailed quality control, and we make a deep discussion of biases resulting either from misspecification of the model or from a small sample, while providing important information regarding the modeling of rainfall extremes, and complementing recent previous studies. In particular, the shape parameter of the extreme-value model seems to have a mean asymptotic value of 0.06.
Data da defesa: 26/08/2016
Cdigo: vtls000224636
Informaes adicionais:
Idioma: Ingls
Data de Publicao: 2016
Local de Publicao: Maring, PR
Orientador: Prof. Dr. Isolde Terezinha Santos Previdelli
Co-Orientador: Prof. Dr. Anthony C. Davison
Instituio: Universidade Estadual de Maring. Centro de Cincias Exatas . Programa de Ps-Graduao em Bioestatstica
Nvel: Dissertao (mestrado em Bioestatstica)
UEM: Departamento de Estatstica

Responsavel: edson
Categoria: Aplicao
Formato: Documento PDF
Arquivo: MODELANDO PRECIPITAO EXTREMA NO BRASIL PELA TEORIA DOS VALORES EXTREMOS Paulo Vitor da Costa Pereira.pdf
Tamanho: 10861 Kb (11122065 bytes)
Criado: 03-02-2017 18:14
Atualizado: 03-02-2017 18:22
Visitas: 412
Downloads: 4

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